2026年8月21日, 于国内生猪市场, 本周, 二师兄走势展现出“先扬后抑”的态势！周初时, 随着需求边际缓慢改进, 内销以及城市需求追随增强, 并且, 通过供应端倚赖标肥价差支撑, 养殖端吝惜售卖压栏意愿较为强烈, 在多方支撑状况下, 国内猪价回升至11.21元每公斤！然而, 就在最近两日, 伴随市场需求承接转弱, 养殖端挺价意愿回落, 猪价遭受重压下跌了, 那么, 此次猪价“风向大变”, 后续会报复性下跌吗? 具体剖析如下:
参考最新数据可知, 因屠宰场调整价格收购生猪, 全国范围内, 外三元瘦肉型标猪的出栏平均价格为每公斤11.15元, 相较于昨日, 此价格环比下降了0.06元, 猪价出现回跌态势。在国内市场之中, 只有福建、吉林以及甘肃部分地区猪价的报价表现较为强劲, 而在南北大部地区, 生猪报价每公斤下跌了0.05至0.3元, 其中, 内蒙以及江苏地区猪价下跌的情况较为显著。
将临池玉米报价按照1.143元/斤来算, 猪粮比处于4.88:1。从机构调研进行分析, 在本周, 国内自繁自养生猪育肥方面出现亏损情况, 亏损额度为86.09元/头 , 与上周相比，环比亏损减少了67.66元 , 养殖亏损所面临的压力明显减轻 , 在零星地区 , 集团猪企出栏报价马上就要达到浮亏平衡点。
查看国内各地汇总报价, 重点监测的南北七个产区里, 有多达二十八个省市, 华东、华中、华北、西北地区, 大部分行情表现较弱, 华南市场较为平稳, 东北以及西南地区报价以窄幅震荡状态为主！全国生猪出栏报价处于10.35至12.5元每公斤, 区域猪价价差一般, 生猪报价普遍在10.7至11.8元每公斤上下, 产销倒挂现象明显改善, 像黑吉辽报价在10.7至10.95元每公斤, 西南川渝报价在11.15至11.2元每公斤。
目前, 猪价的情况是从上涨转而下跌, 市场所呈现出来的走势是风险发生了极大的变化, 此番猪价先是出现了短暂的大幅上涨, 涨幅接近于8.8%, 之后又再次下跌, 对于支撑猪价下跌的逻辑, 具体分析如下:
一方面, 养殖端挺价出现松动, 此前, 受标肥价差支撑, 市场预期先行, 看涨后市信心偏强, 养殖端大多惜售压栏, 生猪出栏节奏偏慢, 但是, 随着标猪价格走高, 市场对高价肥猪承接转差, 部分猪友反馈海南肥猪价格大幅下滑, 这加剧市场恐慌心态, 集团猪企挺价松动, 出栏情绪有所增加, 社会面猪场认卖增多, 适重商品猪供应逐步增加。
另一方面, 需求跟进呈现出转弱的态势！近期, 因为天气逐渐转凉, 各地举办升学宴的数量有所增多, 餐饮以及堂食方面需求有一定程度的改善, 批发市场白条购销转而变得强劲, 屠宰场订单量随之增加, 开工率急剧飙升至30.6%, 需求支撑转而增强, 进而带动猪价逆势上涨！然而, 由于伏天还没有结束, 近期, 副高出现西升的情况带动南方多地高温天气持续, 鲜品猪肉购销状态回落, 屠宰场订单量开始减少, 截至本周开工率降低到29.8%, 消费掣肘所带来的压力再次增多！
因此, 在供需发生变化的情况下, 猪价上涨后续的动力不足, 市场会在短时间内恢复下跌态势！不过, 从理论方面来讲, 此次猪价欠缺“大幅下跌”的基础, 猪价回调的力度可能会比较有限！毕竟, 临近9月, 学生即将返校, 下游市场的需求跟进或许会逐步得到改善, 消费边际的支撑可能会进一步增强, 并且月末即将到来, 集团猪企存在控制量并拉动价格上涨的操作, 二次育肥或许会再次进入市场, 从理论角度来看, 猪价在短暂出现小幅回调之后, 猪价或许会继续攀升, 在9月中上旬, 国内标准生猪的平均价格有望回升到12至12.5元/公斤左右！
这些内容只是起到参考作用, 要以各个地方生猪出栏时真实的成交价格当作标准, 针对这个情况, 大家是怎样去看待它的呢?Blog.Csdn.rzfuk.cN/Article/details/798838.sHtML
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