诺基亚和爱立信警告称，人工智能正在使电信成本更高
AI is making telecom more expensive, warn Ericsson and Nokia
人工智能（AI）领域的旺盛需求导致了零部件短缺，并推高了网络设备供应商的芯片成本，这些成本最终可能由客户买单。
Rampant demand for AI has led to component shortages and driven up chip costs for network equipment vendors. Customers may eventually pay.
诺基亚（Nokia）和爱立信（Ericsson）近期均发出警告称，AI 正在推高零部件价格并延长交货周期。（来源：GSMA）
Nokia and Ericsson have both recently warned that AI is driving up component prices and lengthening their lead times. (Source: GSMA)
如果你拆解一部新智能手机——或者因对 iPhone 不满而将其砸碎——你会发现其中搭载了基于 3 纳米工艺设计的处理器，这是目前最先进的芯片技术。这些高端芯片主要由台湾代工厂台积电（TSMC）生产，通常只见于最尖端的电子设备和 AI 硬件中。不过，一旦这家瑞典公司（爱立信）获得这些芯片，它们也将为爱立信即将推出的 5G 网络产品提供动力。目前，爱立信正处于芯片排队等待名单中，其优先级可能低于英伟达（Nvidia）和苹果（Apple）等台积电的重要客户；同时，旺盛的市场需求也推高了爱立信的采购成本。
Dissect your new smartphone, or smash it apart in an outburst of iPhone rage, and you would expose a processor based on a 3-nanometer design, the most advanced currently available. Produced mainly by Taiwanese foundry TSMC, these high-end chips are rarely found outside the most sophisticated gadgetry and AI hardware. But they will power Ericsson's forthcoming 5G network products as and when the Swedish company obtains them. It is on a waiting list for chips, probably behind more important TSMC customers like Nvidia and Apple, and rampant demand is pushing up the prices it must pay.
已有警告指出，AI 对零部件价格造成的负面影响很快将导致消费电子产品涨价。上个月，英国电信（BT）在公布全年业绩时，首席执行官 Allison Kirkby 告诉主流媒体，AI 对零部件看似无止境的需求正在影响包括智能手机制造商在内的其他芯片买家。消费者很可能会感受到由此带来的价格压力。
There have already been warnings that AI's unwelcome impact on component prices will soon make consumer gadgets more expensive. Last month, as BT reported full-year results, CEO Allison Kirkby told the mainstream press that AI's seemingly insatiable hunger for components was affecting other buyers of the same chips, including smartphone makers. Consumers are likely to feel the pinch.
AI 需求带来的一个显著后果是 IT 行业广泛使用的存储芯片价格飙升，这为芯片制造商带来了巨额利润。三星（Samsung）近期公布的第一季度财报显示，其销售额同比增长 69%，达到 133.9 万亿韩元（约合 881 亿美元），而营业利润则达到 57.2 万亿韩元（约合 377 亿美元），增幅超过 8.5 倍。过去一年里，三星在韩国的股价上涨了 500% 以上；另一家韩国存储芯片制造商 SK 海力士（SK Hynix）的股价更是上涨了十倍。其美国竞争对手美光科技（Micron）也同样受益于这种增长势头。
A well-observed consequence of that AI demand has been a spike in the prices of memory chips used across the IT industry. It has delivered a huge increase in profits for their manufacturers. When Samsung published its recent first-quarter results, they showed that sales had risen 69%, to 133.9 trillion South Korean won (US$88.1 billion), compared with the same period of the previous year, while operating profits of KRW57.2 trillion ($37.7 billion) were more than 8.5 times as much. Samsung's share price in South Korea has grown more than 500% in the last year. SK Hynix, another South Korean memory chip maker, has risen tenfold. Similar gains have boosted Micron, their US rival.
由于存储芯片既用于消费电子产品，也用于网络设备，因此路由器及其他面向电信运营商销售的产品的制造商，也感受到了价格上涨带来的压力。然而，爱立信指出的瓶颈在于射频和基带设备所需的专用集成电路（ASIC）的供应问题。
Because memory chips are used in networking equipment, as well as consumer gadgets, higher prices are being felt by the manufacturers of routers and other products sold to telecom operators. But the crunch noted by Ericsson is in the supply of the application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) needed for radios and baseband gear.
“人工智能正在推高半导体的整体需求，”爱立信移动网络业务部负责人 Per Narvinger 在近期关于公司第一季度财报的电话会议上告诉 Light Reading，“我们看到其中一些组件的需求极高，这推高了我们的采购成本。”
"AI is driving up the demand for semiconductors in general," Per Narvinger, the head of Ericsson's mobile networks business group, told Light Reading on a recent call about the company's first-quarter results. "We are seeing extremely high demand for some of these components, and that drives up prices for us."
分担压力Sharing the pain
目前商用的基站通常采用基于 5 纳米工艺或更大制程节点的芯片。尽管这些制程节点的标称数值在科学精确度上已不完全准确，但更小的节点本质上意味着能在相同空间内集成更多晶体管，从而制造出性能更强大的芯片。网络设备在技术应用上往往滞后于智能手机和人工智能硬件，通常依赖于落后于最尖端技术一代左右的制程节点。
Basestations in commercial use today would typically include chips based on 5-nanometer processors or even larger nodes. While the measurements quoted have become less scientifically accurate, smaller nodes essentially allow more transistors to fit into the same space, producing a more powerful chip. Networking equipment tends to lag smartphones and AI hardware, relying on nodes that are a generation or so behind the bleeding edge.
不过，Narvinger 指出，移动网络领域在技术应用上仍领先于大多数其他行业。“智能手机制造商领先于我们，某些人工智能应用场景（工作负载）可能也领先于我们。但紧随其后的就是移动基础设施领域了，”他说，“目前，许多人工智能应用场景正在争夺我们同样需要的晶圆资源。”
But the mobile networks sector remains ahead of most other industries, according to Narvinger. "The smartphone manufacturers are ahead of us. Probably some of the AI workloads are ahead of us. But then it's pretty much mobile infrastructure," he said. "Right now, many of the AI workloads are competing for the same wafers that we also are interested in."
爱立信寄希望于未来几个月内，随着智能手机制造商和人工智能公司转向更先进的 2 纳米芯片（目前台积电已实现该制程的商业化生产），组件交付周期能够缩短，价格压力也能有所缓解。但这并未阻止爱立信就潜在的价格重新谈判与客户进行接触。除非电信运营商愿意分担部分成本压力，否则爱立信的利润率可能会受到挤压，进而影响其推出极具吸引力产品的能力。
The hope within Ericsson is that lead times will shorten and pricing pressure will ease in the coming months when smartphone makers and AI companies shift to even more advanced 2-nanometer chips, now in commercial production at TSMC's fabs. But that has not stopped Ericsson from approaching its customers about a potential renegotiation of prices. Unless telcos share some of the pain, Ericsson's margins could be compressed, and its ability to churn out attractive products might suffer.
爱立信的竞争对手——诺基亚的首席执行官 Justin Hotard 在发布其第一季度财报时，也发出了类似的警告，指出人工智能需求导致了组件成本上升。“我要提醒大家，我们在新冠疫情期间需求激增时也曾遇到过这种情况——当时我们也看到了价格上涨，”他在电话会议上告诉记者，“我们预计这种情况会再次发生。目前大家谈论最多的恐怕就是存储芯片的问题了。”
A similar warning about higher component costs caused by AI demand came from Justin Hotard, Nokia's CEO, as the Finnish rival to Ericsson reported its own first-quarter results. "I'll remind you that we also saw this when we saw the uptick in demand during COVID – that we saw price increases," he told reporters on a call. "We're anticipating some of that. Memory is probably the one that you hear the most about today."
这种网络设备领域的供应紧张状况显然并不仅限于移动通信行业。正如 Hotard 所指出的，与专注于 5G 领域的爱立信相比，诺基亚的业务更为多元化，同时也面临着包括光网络设备所需组件在内的供应短缺问题。“交货周期无疑正在全线延长，”Hotard 说道，“在我们生产光网络设备组件的领域，也看到了同样的趋势。”
The networking crunch is certainly not limited to the mobile sector, either. As Hotard pointed out, Nokia has a more diverse business than 5G-focused Ericsson and has seen shortages of components needed for optical networking equipment, among other things. "Lead times are absolutely extending across the board," said Hotard. "Where we make components in the optical networking space, we see that same trajectory."
该公司正试图通过审查产品设计并寻找优化空间，尽可能减轻成本上涨带来的影响。不过，正如爱立信（Ericsson）一样，该公司也已开始与客户商讨提价事宜。“许多客户都理解并接受这一点，”Hotard 说道，“我们正与客户就此进行沟通。”
The company is trying to mitigate the impact of higher costs as much as possible by examining product designs and seeing what can be optimized. Much like Ericsson, though, it has kicked off discussions with customers about charging more. "There are many customers that understand that and accept it," said Hotard. "We're working through that with customers."
然而，对于这些北欧供应商而言，芯片成本的上涨恰逢艰难时刻。由于包括无线接入网（RAN）设备在内的某些产品需求疲软，它们的利润率已面临一定压力。美元走软对爱立信造成了冲击，因为该公司很大一部分收入来自美国客户。尽管诺基亚（Nokia）的光网络业务受益于人工智能（AI）热潮带来的销售增长，但该业务仅占其第一季度总收入的 18%。其所属的网络基础设施业务部门当季营业利润率仅为 6.7%，低于上年同期的 7%。
An increase in chip costs, nevertheless, occurs at a difficult moment for the Nordic vendors. Profit margins are already under some pressure amid weak demand for certain products, including radio access network (RAN) equipment. A weaker dollar has hurt Ericsson, which generates a massive share of its revenues from US customers. And while Nokia's optical networking business is enjoying the sales effects of the AI boom, it accounted for only 18% of the company's total revenues for the first quarter. The networking infrastructure business group to which it belongs reported an operating margin for that quarter of just 6.7%, down from 7% the year before.
不喜欢 AI 的另一个理由 Another reason to dislike AI
零部件价格上涨可能会进一步侵蚀盈利能力，而这两家供应商此前已通过大规模裁员来保住利润率。爱立信 3 月底的员工人数不足 8.8 万人，而 2022 年时其员工总数曾超过 10.55 万人。诺基亚的员工人数也从 2022 年平均约 8.5 万人降至 2025 年的约 7.8 万人。根据前任首席执行官 Pekka Lundmark 启动的重组计划，今年还将有数千个工作岗位面临裁撤。
Higher component prices could further erode profitability, and the two vendors have already cut tens of thousands of jobs to protect margins. Ericsson finished March with fewer than 88,000 members of staff, having employed more than 105,500 people back in 2022. Nokia's headcount fell from an average of about 85,000 that year to roughly 78,000 in 2025. Several thousand more jobs have yet to be cut this year under a restructuring plan initiated by former CEO Pekka Lundmark.
不过，除英国电信（BT）外，其他一些客户也表示完全了解当前的情况。当被问及零部件价格问题时，英国宽带运营商 CityFibre 的首席技术官 Neil McRae 表示：“这影响到了方方面面。我认为这一领域的波动对我们行业——不仅是我们电信行业，还包括整个科技行业——都不是好事。”他称赞了包括诺基亚和 Calix 在内的主要供应商所展现出的透明度：“他们做得很好，不仅提前向我们发出预警，还与我们合作，力求将任何负面影响降至最低。”
Certain customers besides BT, however, say they are fully aware of the situation. "It's affecting everything," said Neil McRae, the chief technology officer of UK broadband operator CityFibre, when asked about component prices. "I don't think it's good for our industry to have volatility in this space – not just our industry and telcos, but the tech industry generically." He credits his main suppliers, which include Nokia and Calix, with transparency: "They've been very good at giving us a warning and working with us on minimizing any impact."
竞争对手 Nexfibre 或许本会更加担忧，但鉴于它目前正放缓网络部署步伐，以等待监管机构对其收购宽带竞争对手 Netomnia（出价 20 亿英镑，约合 27 亿美元）一案做出裁决，这种焦虑感便有所缓解。Nexfibre 首席执行官 Rajiv Datta 在本周与记者及分析师举行的早餐会上表示：“眼下或许并非我们寻求大量增购此类设备的时机，但这显然是我们密切关注的事项。”
Rival Nexfibre might be more concerned if it had not recently slowed the pace of network deployment while it awaits a regulatory decision on a £2 billion ($2.7 billion) bid for Netomnia, a broadband competitor. "It's perhaps not the time where we would be looking to add a lot of that type of equipment, but this is obviously something that we watch," said Rajiv Datta, Nexfibre's CEO, during a breakfast briefing with reporters and analysts this week.
他对于公司与 Virgin Media O2 (VMO2) 之间紧密的合作关系抱有信心，认为这将有助于缓解未来可能出现的任何冲击。这家面向大众消费者的电信巨头是 Liberty Global 和 Telefónica 的合资企业，而这两家母公司各自持有 Nexfibre 25% 的股份。Datta 说道：“我认为，我们与 VMO2 合作的价值之一，在于我们能利用其规模优势以及与供应商的既有关系，并将其转化为我们自身网络建设的助力。”
He sounds hopeful that his company's tight relationship with Virgin Media O2 (VMO2) will help it mitigate any future impact. The big, consumer-facing telco is a joint venture between Liberty Global and Telefónica, each of which owns 25% of Nexfibre. "I think one of the values of our partnership with VMO2 is we do get advantages of their scale and of those vendor relationships as well that we leverage through our network," said Datta.
然而归根结底，最初因人工智能（AI）需求激增而引发的零部件价格上涨，可能会层层传导至整个供应链，最终体现在普通消费者所需支付的费用上。既然爱立信（Ericsson）和诺基亚（Nokia）有意将成本转嫁给客户，电信运营商自然也会如法炮制。消费者不仅要为新一代 iPhone 支付更高昂的价格，一旦其服务提供商在采购网络设备时面临成本上涨，他们恐怕也难逃资费上调的命运。而这一切，归根结底都要“归咎”于人工智能。
Ultimately, though, what starts out as a higher component price due to AI demand could percolate through the whole supply chain until it shows up in the fees charged to ordinary consumers. If Ericsson and Nokia are looking to share costs with their customers, so will the telcos. Besides paying higher prices for their next iPhones, customers seem bound to face more expensive tariffs if their service providers have been charged more for network products. For that, they can blame AI.
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AI is making telecom more expensive, warn Ericsson and Nokia
[编者评论]: 长远期来说，电子产品的价格是不断下降的趋势，短期内由于AI的需求让市场供需不平衡(当前需求大于供给)，内存/Flash存储器/光模块/光纤价格上涨是暂时的，需要继续观察2027年美国的股市和经济形势，以及美国国债的控制情况，如果2027年出现全球经济危机(主要来自美国国债影响和资本的贪婪本性)，整个形势就会完全反向变化。
马克思关于资本家的一句话是：“一旦有适当的利润，资本就大胆起来。如果有百分之十的利润，它就保证到处被使用；有百分之二十的利润，它就活跃起来；有百分之五十的利润，它就铤而走险；为了百分之百的利润，它就敢践踏一切人间法律；有百分之三百的利润，它就敢犯任何罪行，甚至冒上绞架的危险。” 这句话深刻揭示了资本主义社会中资本家的逐利本性，以及资本在追求高额利润时所可能采取的极端行为。
